A Diminished Hezbollah is Weakened Further by the Toppling of Assad in Syria

Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and political organization that once stood as one of the most formidable non-state actors in the Middle East, now faces a precarious future. Its longstanding alliance with the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has been crucial to its strength and regional influence. However, the hypothetical fall of Assad would deal a heavy blow to Hezbollah’s already diminished power, exacerbating the group’s internal challenges and its standing in a changing Middle East.

The Syrian Civil War, which erupted in 2011, has been a critical theater for Hezbollah’s military strategy and political positioning. The group intervened early in the conflict, sending fighters to support Assad’s regime against a mix of rebel factions and extremist groups. Hezbollah’s involvement was motivated by both ideological alignment with Assad, who is part of the Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam, and pragmatic concerns about its strategic interests in Lebanon and the broader region. Assad’s Syria provided Hezbollah with critical military and logistical support, allowing the group to flourish and project power far beyond Lebanon’s borders. Syria has also been a vital conduit for Iranian support to Hezbollah, including arms transfers, financial aid, and training.

However, as the Syrian conflict has dragged on for over a decade, the toll on Hezbollah has been significant. The group has lost thousands of fighters in the grinding war, including some of its most experienced commanders. Moreover, Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria has tarnished its reputation among certain segments of the Arab world, especially Sunni Muslims, who see the group as complicit in Assad’s brutal repression of Syrian civilians. Despite these costs, Hezbollah’s commitment to Assad has never wavered, recognizing that his survival is crucial to its own long-term security and access to resources. If Assad were to fall, the consequences for Hezbollah would be far-reaching, marking a new and difficult chapter for the organization.

The Central Role of Syria in Hezbollah’s Strategy

To understand the potential impact of Assad’s toppling on Hezbollah, it is essential to grasp how central Syria has been to Hezbollah’s rise and sustenance. Since its founding in the 1980s with Iranian backing, Hezbollah has relied on Syria as a key partner in its so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel and Western influence in the Middle East. The alliance between Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria has allowed the group to grow into a powerful political and military force within Lebanon and a regional actor capable of challenging Israel and influencing the dynamics of Middle Eastern conflicts.

Syria’s geographic proximity to Lebanon has made it a crucial logistical hub for Hezbollah, facilitating the movement of arms, fighters, and supplies from Iran to Hezbollah-controlled areas in Lebanon. Moreover, the Syrian regime has historically provided Hezbollah with political cover, offering the group sanctuary and diplomatic backing in the face of international pressure. Assad’s regime has long seen Hezbollah as a useful ally in its own conflicts with Israel and in asserting its regional influence.

The toppling of Assad, therefore, would severely disrupt this symbiotic relationship. Without a friendly regime in Damascus, Hezbollah’s supply lines from Iran would be jeopardized, forcing the group to find new ways to sustain its military capabilities. Iran, which has invested heavily in the Assad regime, would also lose its most important Arab ally, further isolating Hezbollah in the region. In the event of Assad’s fall, Hezbollah would likely find it much more difficult to procure advanced weaponry, including missiles and drones, which have been essential to its strategy of deterrence against Israel.

Moreover, the loss of Assad would leave Hezbollah vulnerable on its western flank, with the possibility of a hostile or unstable regime coming to power in Syria. This would complicate Hezbollah’s ability to maintain its influence in Lebanon, where it already faces growing political and economic pressures. Hezbollah’s role in Lebanese politics, where it holds significant sway through its military prowess and its political alliances, would be undercut by the loss of its Syrian backer.

Internal Challenges: A Weakened Hezbollah Facing Growing Dissent

In recent years, Hezbollah has been dealing with a range of internal challenges that have chipped away at its strength. The organization’s involvement in the Syrian Civil War drew criticism from many Lebanese, including within its own Shia community. While Hezbollah framed its intervention as a necessary defense of Lebanon’s security, many saw it as an overreach that dragged the country into a costly and unpopular war. Thousands of Hezbollah fighters were killed or wounded in Syria, and the group’s resources were stretched thin as it sought to fight on multiple fronts.

In addition to the human and material losses incurred in Syria, Hezbollah has had to contend with Lebanon’s deepening economic crisis. The Lebanese economy has been in freefall since 2019, with rampant inflation, a collapsing currency, and widespread poverty. Hezbollah’s reputation as a “state within a state” capable of providing services and stability has taken a hit as its own resources have been strained by the economic collapse. While the group maintains significant control over parts of Lebanon, including the southern regions and parts of Beirut, its ability to manage the country’s economic and political crises has been called into question.

Moreover, Hezbollah has faced growing dissent from within Lebanon’s diverse political landscape. The 2019 protests against government corruption and economic mismanagement, known as the “October Revolution,” saw demonstrators from across sectarian lines calling for an end to Lebanon’s entrenched political elite, including Hezbollah. While the protests were not explicitly anti-Hezbollah, the group’s political alliances with corrupt factions and its perceived prioritization of regional interests over domestic concerns have tarnished its standing in the eyes of many Lebanese.

If Assad were to fall, Hezbollah would likely find itself further isolated within Lebanon, as it would lose one of its most important external backers. This could embolden Hezbollah’s political rivals and weaken its ability to maintain its dominance in Lebanese politics. Moreover, the loss of Assad would create new challenges for Hezbollah’s military wing, which relies on Syria as a critical front in its ongoing conflict with Israel.

Regional Shifts and the Isolation of Hezbollah

The fall of Assad would also occur within the broader context of shifting regional dynamics that have already placed Hezbollah in a more precarious position. The normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, through the Abraham Accords, has altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. While Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons continue to oppose Israel, the growing acceptance of Israel within the Arab world has diminished Hezbollah’s regional clout. With fewer Arab states openly supporting Hezbollah’s anti-Israel stance, the group finds itself more isolated on the regional stage.

Moreover, Iran, Hezbollah’s primary sponsor, is itself facing significant internal and external pressures. Domestically, the Iranian regime has been grappling with widespread protests and civil unrest, while externally, it continues to be subjected to sanctions and diplomatic isolation. While Iran has maintained its support for Hezbollah, its ability to provide the same level of financial and military assistance may be limited by its own challenges. A weakened Iran, combined with the loss of Assad, would severely constrain Hezbollah’s ability to project power and influence in the region.

Conclusion: The Future of Hezbollah in a Post-Assad Middle East

The toppling of Assad in Syria would mark a turning point for Hezbollah, further weakening a group that has already been diminished by years of war and internal challenges. The loss of its most important Arab ally would sever critical supply lines, jeopardize its military capabilities, and isolate it politically in Lebanon and the broader region. While Hezbollah has proven resilient in the face of adversity in the past, the collapse of the Assad regime would present a challenge of an entirely different magnitude.

Hezbollah’s future in a post-Assad Middle East would likely be defined by a struggle to maintain its relevance and influence in an increasingly hostile environment. Without the support of the Syrian regime, Hezbollah would need to adapt to new realities, both within Lebanon and in its regional positioning. This could involve a shift toward a more defensive posture, focusing on consolidating its base of support in Lebanon while seeking new alliances in an ever-changing Middle Eastern landscape.